May 22, 2022

Europe's GHG emissions surge past pre-pandemic levels

topic:	Air Pollution
located:	Spain, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Hungary, Estonia, Poland
editor:	Abby Klinkenberg

In August 2020, the European Commission’s research and innovation magazine Horizon published an article asking “Can the world emerge from the pandemic a better place?” New data released by the EU’s Eurostat body indicates that, at least environmentally, the answer is a resounding no: in the fourth quarter of 2021, EU greenhouse gas emissions surpassed pre-pandemic levels. At a moment when European politicians are striving to slash emissions in pursuit of net zero by 2050, this emissions rebound is fundamentally concerning.

The Horizon piece captured a fleeting moment of optimism amidst the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus’ disruption to regularly-scheduled socio-economic programming led to an unprecedented plummet in both GDP and greenhouse gas emissions. The fall was briefly taken as a sign that whatever was on the other side might be better - or at least greener - than where we had come from. The new Eurostat data packs a punch because it shatters this illusion. Not yet in the epidemiological clear, Europe has found itself polluting at a higher rate than in 2019. The 1,041 million tons of CO2 released by EU-countries in the fourth quarter of 2021 exceeds those from any year since 2018.

As greenhouse gas emissions soared in the fourth quarter of 2021, EU GDP increased, year-on-year, by a robust 4.6 percent. It is no secret that greenhouse gas emissions and profits are tied. According to Eurostat, “this increase is largely due to the effect of the economic rebound after the decrease in activity due to the COVID-19 crisis.” By and large, the EU continues to prioritise GDP over the health of our shared planet.

Breaking down the bloc’s greenhouse gas emissions by country, of the 27 EU-member states, only seven have been able to maintain some of the greenhouse gas reductions caused by the pandemic between the fourth quarters of 2019 and 2021: Greece (-0.26 percent), Ireland (-5.47 percent), Luxembourg (-9.55 percent), Malta (-6.85 percent), the Netherlands (-11.88 percent), and Spain (-0.89 percent).

The other 20 EU states have all surpassed pre-pandemic levels. While some like Finland (+0.38 percent) and Portugal (+0.93 percent) registered relatively negligible increases, five EU states increased their greenhouse gas emissions by double-digit percentage points since the fourth quarter of 2019: Bulgaria (+21.53 percent), Czechia (+11.58 percent), Estonia (+21.66 percent), Hungary (+12.83 percent), and Poland (+11.13 percent). These more drastic increases all occurred in Eastern Europe - spikes in Hungary and Poland coincide with an increasingly tense relationship with the EU, not only in terms of rule of law but also climate change mitigation efforts.

Attempting to placate the concerned reader, Eurostat insists “the long-term trend of EU greenhouse gas emissions displays a steady reduction.” While decarbonisation efforts are certainly ongoing, the fact remains that emissions increased in the fourth quarter of 2021. Simply put, this cannot happen. En route to achieving net zero by 2050, the EU plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the bloc by 55 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Last September, a study by Enel Foundation and the European House-Ambrosetti found that the EU is only on pace to reach the mentioned target by 2051. The latest Eurostat figures only support these troubling findings.

The pandemic did not lead to the economic-environmental paradigm shift that many were hoping for. These figures must be a wake-up call: for the climate crisis, there will be no deus ex machina.

Photo by Maxim Tolchinskiy

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