Facing energy crisis, Africa hangs hopes on solar

On 30 June, the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) warned Zambians to prepare for even longer power outages, extending beyond the 12-hour daily rationing they were already facing. This is due to drought conditions impacting power generation at the company’s four main hydropower stations. The southern African nation relies on hydroelectric power for 83 per cent of its electricity.

Around the same time, across the Zambezi River in neighbouring Zimbabwe, a similar situation unfolded as Energy Minister Edgar Moyo informed Parliament that the country had lost 800 megawatts (MW) of power at its main hydropower station at Kariba.

"The installed capacity at Kariba is 1,050 megawatts and we are only able to produce 214 megawatts on average because of the water rationing, which has resulted out of low inflows in the lake," Moyo said, explaining the extended power outages.

Climate Change Affects Hydropower Generation

Zambia and Zimbabwe, two southern African countries that are primarily dependent on Lake Kariba for their power generation, are facing extended daily power cuts of up to 18 hours as the effects of climate change are impinging on their power generation. 

In recent years, frequent droughts and heightened evaporation from increased heat have caused lake’s water levels to drop to record lows, severely reducing the country's power generation capacities.

The southern African region, which is currently reeling from the effects of a harsh El Ninõ-induced drought, has received below average rainfalls over the past four years. This has reduced water levels on Lake Kariba, the world’s largest man-made lake on the shared Zambia-Zimbabwe border along the Zambezi river, to the current precarious levels.

The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA), a bi-national body that regulates the shared lake, said that as of 6 August, 2024, the lake’s live storage (the water available for power generation) had fallen from its design capacity of 13 metres to just 1.49 metres. Power generation on the lake is designed to operate between levels 475.5 metres and 488.5 m (with 0.7 m freeboard). 

"The Lake level is steadily decreasing due to low inflow, closing the period under review at 476.99m (10.28% usable storage) on 6th August 2024, compared to 479.61m (28.98% usable storage) recorded on the same date last year," the authority noted in its weekly report.

The Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) and Zambia’s ZESCO operate hydropower plants on the southern and northern banks of the lake, respectively. The Zimbabwean plant has a capacity of 1050 MW while the Zambian plant has an installed capacity of 1080 MW. Because of the critical drop in the lake’s live storage, power generation on the Zimbabwean plant has plummeted to 214 MW with that on the Zambian side dropping to just 98 MW.

With the rains still about four months away, there is a real possibility that both hydro plants could be shut down, a scenario that seemed unimaginable when the lake's construction was completed in 1959. The lake's lowest recorded live storage, at 475.60 metres (roughly 0.8 per cent of usable storage or just 10 cm above the Minimum Operating Level), was reached on 30 December 2022.

The situation is slightly better downstream on the Zambezi River at the Cahora Bassa Dam in Mozambique, where authorities reported that by 30 June, the dam was down to 60 per cent of its usable capacity.

"This level of storage, significantly low for this period, is influenced by low inflows due to the ‘El Ninõ’ phenomenon characterised by below-normal precipitation over the region," noted Cahora Bassa Hydroelectric Plant (HCB), the Mozambican power utility, in a report.

Turning To Solar

Faced with this growing threat to their primary power sources, Zimbabwe, Zambia and other African countries like South Africa have begun implementing strategies to shift towards alternative power sources, primarily solar.

Zambia has installed power generation capacity of 3,456.8 MW, 83 per cent of which is hydro, making it highly vulnerable to climate change. In addition to Kariba, Zambia operates three other hydro plants that have also been severely affected by climate change- related droughts. These are Kafue Gorge (producing 372 MW against an installed capacity of 990 MW), Lower Kafue Gorge, which currently delivers 179 MW against an installed capacity of 750 MW and Itezhi-Tezhi Power Compan, which gives a power output of merely 34 MW against an installed capacity of 120 MW. 

The remainder of Zambia’s power mix includes nine percent from coal, five percent from heavy fuel oil, and three percent from solar photovoltaic.

As part of the strategy to diversify its energy mix, the government of Zambia has signed a number of deals with global firms that have the potential to substantially increase its solar power. One of them is a USD 2 billion solar deal with United Arab Emirates’ renewable energy company Masdar for the development of 2,000 MW solar projects, signed in January last year. 

ZESCO has also entered into a power purchase agreement (PPA) with SkyPower Global, a Canadian-based independent power producer, to provide 1,000 MW of solar energy to about four million Zambian households.

Two solar plants with a combined capacity of 94 MW, operated by Copperbelt Energy Corporation (CEC), were commissioned in Kitwe, the country’s second-largest city. Additional significant deals have been signed with other French and Italian firms.

Zambia-based energy expert, Dr Johnstone Chikwanda, explained to FairPlanet that the current move by the government of President Hakainde Hichilema to increase the portion of solar in the country’s energy mix aims to safeguard the country from the shocks of climate change.

"The Zambian electricity generation portfolio is heavily skewed towards hydroelectricity, a situation which exposes the country to significant energy risks due to climate change," Dr Chikwanda said. 

"Although the national electricity capacity is more than the peak demand, the country falls into energy poverty each time we have inadequate water inflows into the Kariba auditorium and (the) Kafue Complex."

He added that in order to improve the balancing of different energy sources, Zambia has started to drive towards renewable energy. 

Due to legacy issues [decisions by previous administrations], he said, less than 4 per cent of Zambia’s energy comes from renewable sources. However, this, he predicted, is expected to change with new policy measures being implemented, such as Net Metering and the Open Access Policy.

As part of efforts to diversify the country’s energy mix, Zambia announced plans in July to construct a 300 MW coal power plant at a cost of USD 400 million. While coal is not a clean energy source, Dr Chikwanda stated that the decision was driven by the urgent needs of the copper mining nation.

He argued that due to storage challenges, solar energy cannot be fully relied upon, adding that the country needs a constant, guaranteed power supply 24/7. Energy security, he noted, is a national security issue that affects not only the economy but overall security. It also has a psychological impact on the population, he added.

He stated that the new coal power plant would bring Zambia’s total coal-generated power supply to 600 MW.

"I don’t expect [it] to cause issues with climate diplomats, as we are in serious challenges as our electricity supply is almost rooted in hydro," he explained.

Zimbabwe is facing a similar situation. The loss of power from Kariba has left the country with a power supply of about 1,200 MW, against a peak electricity demand of 2,200 MW. Most of the available power is being generated from its coal-fired power station in Hwange, prompting the country to turn to solar energy.

Zimbabwe is working with China Energy Engineering Corporation for the development of a 1,000 MW floating solar plant on its side of Lake Kariba.

Another 500 MW plant is planned for the resort city of Victoria Falls. Additionally, around 27 small independent power producers are investing approximately USD 1 billion to develop 997.9 MW of solar capacity. To encourage investment in this sub-sector, the country has removed import duties on all solar products.

African Solar Potential

Solar power has arguably saved South Africa from the brink. After suffering from crippling power cuts since 2008, the African continent’s largest economy celebrated 100 consecutive days without any power cuts in early July - the first time since 2020 - thanks to the increased reliance on solar energy.

The country has invested heavily in solar power, both at industrial and household levels, adding an average of 3,000 MW of solar power annually over the past three years.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), solar power has the potential to contribute 15 per cent of Africa’s electricity by 2030, and could double to 30 per cent by 2040.

The cost of solar products has fallen by about 90 per cent over the last decade. Furthermore, most parts of Africa enjoy abundant sunshine, making solar a viable option.

According to the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority (ZERA), Zimbabwe receives an average solar irradiation of 20 MJ per square meter per day and enjoys 3,000 hours of sunshine annually. Yet, only 40 per cent of its citizens have access to electricity, compared to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region average of 45 per cent, leaving the majority of the population without power.

Experts, however, point out that the downside of solar energy is the significant initial capital investment required, which many African governments and households may not easily afford.

Additionally, as Dr Chikwanda, the Zambian energy expert, highlighted, solar power storage remains a challenge for many users. There are also perception issues that need to be addressed regarding the efficacy of solar as a reliable power option.

Nyasha Chasakara, chief executive of Solarpro Zimbabwe, a firm advancing solar energy access in Africa, told FairPlanet that to unlock the full potential of the solar sector, African governments should offer financial incentives to investors in this field.

"African governments already spend a lot of money on importing electricity for example, [and] fuel to run generators, but think it’s expensive to provide tax rebates for those going solar," said Chasakara, who is also an investment banker.

He added, "Incentivising going solar will unlock local funding at a large scale. Furthermore, harmonisation of laws that protect investments will attract private capital that can help make Africa energy independent." 

Victor Kashawu, director of Vicky Solars, a Zimbabwean solar firm, noted that negative perceptions of solar power are rapidly changing, especially when installations are carried out by qualified technicians from reputable companies that offer warranties and full backup services.

"For Africa, the future is solar, there is no question about that," Kashawu told FairPlanet. "Once perception issues are addressed as the new energy storage technologies that are being developed reach these shores, solar power would be the most clean and dependable source of power for the continent."

Image by Karsten Würth.